By
PROF. YEMI OKE, SAN
“Mr. Kindman” is deeply concerned about the plight of his people. He made a promise: “deny me access to this community when next I return if I don’t ensure abundant fish on your tables in six (6) months”. Unknown to communitarians, “Mr. Kindman” has already identified some able-bodied, young men in the community. He quietly yielded them to skilled fishermen for months of rigorous training in fishing. He bought them fishing nets after the training. At the end of the six month pledge, he came forward to say: “promise made and kept”. He didn’t fish for the community but he trained the community how to fish and have fish in abundance.
*Background*:
“Mr. Kindman” in the above hypothetical case is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. In the course of electioneering towards the 2023 presidential election, he made a promise in a popular video which is now being referenced by opposition politicians, some television (and social media) presenters and several Nigerians.
This piece seeks to put the promise made in the video within the context of the circumstances under which it was made for critical evaluation as an industry expert/professional. This is to diffuse or disaggregate needless political embellishments of vital issues of access to electricity and power sector governance made in the video.
Quoting verbatim, President Bola Tinubu said in the video:
*”By all means necessary, you must have electricity, and you will not pay for estimated billing anymore. A promise made will be a promise kept. If I don’t keep the promise, when I come back for the second time, don’t vote for me unless I give you adequate reasons why I couldn’t deliver on the promise”*
*A Critical Examination of the Five (5) Issues in the video:*
Five issues arose from the above statements: (1) “That you will, by all means, have electricity”. (2) “That you will not pay for estimated billing anymore”. (3) “That the promise made will be kept”. (4) “That if I don’t keep the promise, when I come back for the second time, don’t vote for me”, and lastly (5) “That unless I give you adequate reasons why I couldn’t deliver on the promise”.
(1) *“That you will, by all means, have electricity”*:
Essential elements of electricity are generation, transmission and distribution. To an average Nigerian, unless there is electricity through their sockets and other fittings, there is no light.
To experts, we ask questions about: accessibility; affordability and sustainability. This is measured through available sources including renewables- solar, wind, hydo, gas and others.
We talk of “affordability” in the context of access – even if available, can Nigerians afford it? Is it sustainable- meaning will it be available in the same context and quality at reasonable rates, at all times?
Within a week of getting to power, President Bola Tinubu signed the Electricity Act, 2023 (on June 9, 2023). It took the writer (and a few others) more than two decades of consistent advocacies in writings, publications, media interviews and networking on the inevitable reality of a new electricity law to operationalize Nigeria’s power sector. It came rather too late.
Recall that President Bola was the first Governor in Nigeria to have experimented with a decentralized electricity regime with the *Lagos-Enron* project in 1999/2000, which was muscled-down by “Federal might”. In retrospect, where would Nigeria be by now in terms of electricity had we allowed “Lagos-Enron” initiative to work?
The positive disposition of President Bola Tinubu in signing the Act early in his administration was a matter of inevitable national exigencies. Then as Governor, he was a victim of the “Federal might”. Destiny now offers him the “yam” and the “knife” to redress the situation.
*Implications of the new Electricity Act:*
The implication of Electricity Act 2023 is that no Nigerian can, in good conscience, hold the Federal Government solely accountable for electricity generation, transmission and distribution. All 36 States in Nigeria now have equal powers, rights and constitutional/statutory duties and responsibilities to ensure “adequate”, affordable and reliable electricity in their respective States. They might not be as determined to declare in a video like Tinubu, but they now have the “net” and “fishing tools” to “fish abundant electricity” for their people. Tinubu made it happen!
The first crucial step has been taken with the decentralization of all aspects of electricity. It is now left for the States to show their score-cards in terms of electricity generation, transmission and distribution in the post-2023 Electricity Act.
Some States have started taking steps to maximize the benefit of the new era of decentralization in the power sector. Nigerians should watch out for states like Abia, Enugu, Borno, Oyo, Lagos, Kaduna, Niger and others. If sustained, States that are lucky to be governed by conscientious Governors will readily scale-up access to electricity by deploying their competitive advantages in hydo, solar, gas, renewable and other sources.
In terms of bankability, it is anticipated that some well-managed states will have little challenges in attracting private sectors to their power sectors.
As predicted in my old piece titled “How A Bola Tinubu Presidency May Approach and Solve Power Sector Challenges” (published 16/12/22), the quest for stable, reliable electricity may receive further attentions at the level of the 774 local governments in Nigeria (aside Local Council Development Areas- LCDAs). This is now made possible by the “Fish-for-Self” access provided by President Bola Tinubu as part of strategic steps to keeping the promise made in the video under review.
We follow the actualisation of the promise made in the video in the last two years. We note in the area of interventions that alternate energy access is being stimulated across the county. Zungeru hydo power station is being completed. Kashimbila Hydro plant is getting set. Kaduna Thermal Plant is expected to become operational by 2025.
In the same vien, grid-based generation capacity has been increased by about 40%, from 5,500 to 13,000 megawatts. Off-grid capacity through mini-grids and renewables have more than doubled in the last two years. The Presidential power initiative added more than 700 megawatts – about 35% of the 4,200 m/w capacity met on ground at the beginning of the Tinubu regime. Phase II targets 7,000 MW additional capacity.
As sector experts, we note that the promise made in the video is being religiously pursued in rural electrification, which is being scaled-up massively through mini-grid solutions. For example, Plateau State (550); Cross Rivers (440); Niger State (3,900). The partnership with the World Bank also seeks to deliver electricity to 17.5 million Nigerians through solar mini-grids.
In terms metering initiative, 10 million smart meters are being deployed under *PMI- Presidential Meter Initiative.* These are just to mention a few of what we are tracking as industry experts, benchmarking the promise made in the video. The facts of those projects are verifiable.
Liquidity is one of the downsides of Nigeria’s power sector. Recently, in a Statemanly manner at a meeting with the Association of Power Generation Companies, the President assured them of his administration’s commitment to resolving the liquidity challenges in the power sector. President Tinubu declared: “I accept the assets and liabilities of my predecessors”. We also tracked it in our industry diary that he promised to pay (refinance) the N4 Trillion debt. One may then ask, what more needs to be done. Certainly a lot more still needs to be done as highlighted below.
(2) *“That you will not pay for estimated billing anymore”:*
As industry experts, we observed that “estimated billing” is sometimes deliberately weaved into the systems by the distribution companies (DISCOS). I had referred to this as “Politics of Metering” in one of my published articles on power sector issues. However, we note that, if the current trends on metering as highlighted above is sustained, and the presumably “independent” regulator, the NERC does its job, estimated billing should be phased-out in Nigeria in less than 360 days.
The 36 States also have a duty as to metering, by deliberate policies to phase-out estimated billing in keeping pace with the declared intention of President Tinubu in the video.
(3) *“That a promise made will be kept”*:
We observe that President Bola Tinubu has been most decisive in keeping the promise made in the video under reference. Within days in office, President Tinubu yanked-off regressive monopoly of the Federal Government which had hindered the growth of the country’s power sector by signing the Electricity Act. He also deployed other policy measures. While noting that further steps are desirable, the promise made within the context of the circumstances in the video is being conscionably kept.
It is my considered professional/expert view that the promise was a measured statement. It is realistic, achievable and measurable. However, in addition, Nigerians should be prepared to begin to hold their Governors, Local Government Chairman and other political actors responsible within the realm of “Power Sector Federalism” which has now been made possible by the decentralized regime under the Tinubu administration.
Nigerians should also task their political leaders and representatives to augment power sector interventions. For instance, recently, a serving Senator single-handedly lite-up Four Hundred and Thirty-Five (435) communities through the supply of One Hundred and Two (102) transformers in Ogun West senatorial district. This is in addition to several similar initiatives in terms of solar street lights and related interventions by the Senator in other parts of Ogun State.
In the current era of Federalisation of the power sector, all 36 States in Nigeria, 774 Local governments including private sector actors, politicians and community associations may, without restraints, embark on various categories of electricity projects.
(4) *“That if I don’t keep the promise, when I come back for the second time, don’t vote for me”:*
Beyond myopic, ethnic-infused politicisation, it should be difficult for any Nigerian to withhold his or her vote for Tinubu on account of the promise made in the video under reference. The fact remains access to electricity is now significantly enhanced.
Frequency of grid collapses is on significant decline. A new agency- Nigeria Independent System Operator (NISO) has been created from the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) to dedicatedly take full charge of load-shedding, grid maintenance and sundry matters. This is without failing to reckon with the “Nigerian-factor” of power lines vandalism, massive meter-bye-pass, electricity thefts, sector corruption and regulatory lapses. These challenges are not peculiar to the power sector, and it will be most unfair to attribute it to failure to keep the promise made by President Tinubu in the video, which, to all intent and purposes, has been, is being and seems continually (being) kept.
(5) *“That unless I give you adequate reasons why I couldn’t deliver on the promise”:*
There are several “adequate reasons” to validly justify inability to keep the promise made in the video under consideration, if President Tinubu decides to play politics of excuses. But, quite frankly, there is no basis for giving any “adequate reasons” for a promise that has been kept in good faith. The only consideration is that Nigerians should be prepared to now hold their Governors, Local Government Chairman and others responsible. This is because- be it on-grid or off-grid generation, transmission or distribution, States do have full, unrestrained powers to deliver electricity to their people, including meters, within the realities of “Power Sector Federalism” made possible by President Bola Tinubu.
*Conclusion*:
The ocean of Nigeria’s power sector is full of abundant and varied species of fishes. The net and other tools have been supplied. What is left is for Nigerians and their respective States and Local Governments to make use of the opportunity to “fish-for-self” in the power sector.
Realistically, the power sector is still hugely challenged including without limitation to the obvious insolvency situations of a number of DISCOs and GENCOs, debt-overhangs and others. There are also regulatory ineptitude and management challenges in the sector, which formed basis of the long-held position of the writer for “ *another round of acquisition and re-financing in the power sector”* .
It is my well-considered professional view that, substantially, the promise are being kept within the realism of the now Federated power sector of Nigeria. Certainly, a lot more still needs to be done, but no Nigerian will deny Tinubu his or her votes on account of the promise made in the video under reference, which, as illustrated above, are being conscionably kept.
God bless Nigeria. This “GIANT” called Nigeria shall rise and never to fall again!!!
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*PROF. YEMI OKE, SAN, PhD, FCArb, FCTI*
Professor of Energy/Electricity Law
University of Lagos, Nigeria
First published August 15, 2025
